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Reflected chain with geometric downward jumps (Xn+1​=max(0,Xn​+1−Dn​))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Markov process Markov chain
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
Let independent Dn​ have P(Dn​=k)=pqk, k≥0, q=1−p. The displayed chain has transition probabilities Pij​=pqi−j+1 for 1≤j≤i+1 and Pi0​=qi+1. Its probability of hitting zero from i≥1 is one when p≤1/2 and (q/p)i+1 when p>1/2. The first-step boundary equation at i=1 is essential for the extra exponent. The chain is positive recurrent for p<1/2, with stationary probabilities (1−p/q)(p/q)j, null recurrent at p=1/2, and transient for p>1/2.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2005 / ib / Paper 2 / 20D / Solution

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