Shared bias in an interlaboratory consensus

Shared bias in an interlaboratory consensus occurs when a common systematic error shifts several laboratories' results together. Their interlaboratory consensus value can then be highly reproducible while displaced from an independent reference. Shared calibration standards, a common correction or the same inadequately modeled measurement step can create such dependence. The GUM explicitly warns that using the same instrument, standard or reference datum can correlate input quantities.^[ref]

A simple original model iswhere $\theta$ is the target quantity value, $b$ a common fixed offset and ${\epsilon }_i$ a laboratory-specific deviation. The arithmetic mean is $\bar{x}=\theta +b+\bar{\epsilon }$. Increasing the number of independent laboratories reduces the fluctuations in $\bar{\epsilon }$ but leaves $b$ in place.

The obstacle is also one of identification. For any constant $c$, replacing $(\theta ,b)$ with $(\theta +c,b-c)$ leaves all predicted results unchanged. Pairwise differences $x_i-x_j$ cancel both terms. Thus the comparison's internal agreement cannot determine the absolute common offset without additional information.

To represent residual common-reference uncertainty, use an uncertain zero-centered quantity $B$ with standard uncertainty $u_B$, independent of mutually independent laboratory errors of variance ${\sigma }^2$. ThenThis is a stated uncertainty model, distinct from asserting that an unknown fixed bias has been observed to vary randomly. The common contribution is counted once in the mean's uncertainty; it is not divided by the number of laboratories.

For stipulated $u_B=0.50$, $\sigma =0.20$ and $n=25$, treating everything as independent would retain only $0.20/5=0.04$. The stated correlated model instead gives $u(\bar{x})=\sqrt{0.25+0.0016}\approx 0.502$, in the same units as the measurement. The appropriate covariance terms prevent the implausible conclusion that enough copies of a shared reference can remove its uncertainty.^[ref]

An independently characterized certified reference material, a different measurement principle or an independently calibrated reference can help test the suspected common shift. Independence must itself be checked: a nominally separate reference derived from the same calibration chain may retain the same dependency. Recognized biases should be corrected where appropriate, with the correction's uncertainty retained.