Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 35 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Both factors are assigned at orchard level. Therefore the experimental units are the twelve orchards; the trees are observational units within them. The six combinations form a balanced factorial design, replicated twice. The orchard ANOVA stratum has statistical degrees of freedom. Spray uses , pruning uses , and their interaction term uses , leaving six for error.
Dividing each treatment sum of squares in ANOVA by its statistical degrees of freedom and using as the denominator gives all missing entries:
The unrounded F-test statistics are , and . The within-orchard tree mean square in ANOVA, 180, is not the treatment error denominator: using it would confuse subsampling with independent replication. The tree ANOVA stratum has statistical degrees of freedom; is the uncorrected total, and the corrected total is 359.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 35 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Under the usual normal linear model for independent orchard means with common error variance, the treatment ratios have null F-distributions with denominator six statistical degrees of freedom. Their upper-tail P-values are approximatelyUse the unrounded ratios when evaluating these P-values. Thus none of spray, pruning or their interaction term is significant at a 5% significance level. Spray gives modest evidence if a 10% significance level was chosen in advance, but this is not strong evidence.
Failure to reject does not establish absence of treatment effects. Only two orchards per combination and six residual statistical degrees of freedom leave considerable uncertainty and potentially low statistical power. The table alone cannot give the direction or magnitude of individual effects: that requires treatment means. These model-based F-tests also rely on appropriate orchard allocation and comparable residual variation; they should not be interpreted as unconditional conclusions from the table alone.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 35 4 f iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
This produces a split-plot design: assign spray to whole orchards, with six sprayed and six unsprayed, then independently randomize ten trees to each pruning method inside every orchard. Orchards remain experimental units for spray; individual trees become experimental units for pruning. Pruning contrasts and the spray-by-pruning interaction term now lie in the within-block ANOVA stratum, while spray is tested between orchards.
The between-orchard ANOVA stratum has eleven statistical degrees of freedom, split into one for spray and ten for error. The within-orchard ANOVA stratum has 348, split into two for pruning, two for the interaction term and 344 for error. This pooling of within-orchard error is appropriate under the stated compound-symmetry covariance model; additional orchard-specific pruning variation would need its own variance component rather than this simplified error model.
The shared orchard effect cancels in a pruning difference within an orchard. Its variance is , so averaging across twelve orchards givesThe spray contrast still compares means of six orchards per group, each based on 30 trees, so its estimated variance remains . For a difference of pruning differences between the two spray groups, each group's pruning difference has estimated variance , and the resulting interaction contrast has estimated variance , compared with in the original allocation.
Splitting pruning within orchards improves pruning and interaction precision without extra trees, and gives spray a less sparse error estimate; it does not reduce the spray contrast's variance. This option requires tree-level pruning to be practical without interference between neighboring trees. The numerical gains, like those in the other options, assume the current variance components remain applicable next year.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 35 4 f ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Allocate the extra orchards evenly, giving three independent orchards to each of the six combinations. Each orchard still has mean variance under the fitted model. Each pruning marginal now uses six orchards and each spray marginal nine, givingBoth are two-thirds of their original values. The orchard residual statistical degrees of freedom increase from to .
Extra orchards improve independent replication, give a predicted one-third reduction in contrast variances, and improve error estimation. Both this option and using 45 trees require 540 tree measurements, but extra orchards offer the greater predicted statistical gain under the fitted model. They may cost more to recruit and administer; their suitability and comparability also matter.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 35 4 f i Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Under the fitted compound-symmetry covariance model, an orchard mean based on trees has varianceWith the current estimates this falls from to . The numbers of orchards contributing to each marginal remain unchanged, so both marginal treatment-contrast variances fall by a factor : pruning differences have estimated variance and the spray difference has estimated variance .
Adding trees gives a predicted 25% reduction in these variances, but no extra independent orchard replication. It requires 50% more tree measurements and leaves six orchard residual statistical degrees of freedom. Increasing reduces the term but cannot remove the shared orchard component , so gains eventually diminish.
Regression factor 2026-10-07
A regression factor is a categorical variable encoded by indicator columns or treatment contrasts in a statistical model. A factor with observed levels normally contributes statistical degrees of freedom when an intercept is present. The reference level in a regression factor has coefficient zero under treatment contrasts. Coding a year as a factor permits arbitrary year effects rather than imposing a linear trend.