Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2015 iii Paper 37 4 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Choose a proposal probability density function positive wherever is nonzero, up to null sets, and draw independent and identically distributed random variables from . The ordinary importance sampling estimator isThe support condition for importance sampling and absolute integrability give , so this is an unbiased estimator. Its variance, possibly infinite, isLet . If , the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality yieldsEquality holds for proportional to . Thus the minimum-variance importance distribution and the minimum variance areFor a constant-sign integrand this is zero variance. If , the integrand vanishes almost everywhere and the zero estimator already has zero variance. Requiring the proposal to cover all of the target's support, including where , can exclude ; in that stricter class, approaches the same infimum as . This distinguishes coverage of the integral from coverage of every target event.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 208 5 b Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
The support condition for importance sampling is missing from the printed assertion. Assume , , and for -almost every . For a proposal , rejection has conditional probability . Its unconditional probability is , so the conditional density of a rejected draw isThus the rejected-draw weight is precisely , andConditionally on any positive rejection count among independent proposals, the rejected locations have this iid conditional density. Henceis an unbiased estimator conditionally on , and therefore also conditionally on the event . This is importance sampling from the rejected-proposal distribution.
The nonstrict assumption alone does not suffice: the rejected distribution may completely miss part of the target support. For example, let be uniform on , , , and . All rejected proposals lie in , where , so the displayed estimator is always , whereas . This remains a counterexample after conditioning on . A strict envelope, such as choosing larger than the essential supremum of , repairs the missing support condition. Near-equality can still give high-variance weights, even when it remains an unbiased estimator.