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Terminal decomposition of an L1-bounded supermartingale (Xn​=E[X∞​∣Fn​]+Yn​,Yn​→0 a.s.)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Martingale Supermartingale
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
An L1-bounded supermartingale has an almost sure convergence limit X∞​ in L1. The conditional-expectation martingale Mn​=E[X∞​∣Fn​] has uniform integrability and converges to X∞​ both almost surely and in L1. To identify its limit, test against every event in every finite-time sigma-algebra and use uniqueness on their generated sigma-algebra. Then Y=X−M is a supermartingale tending to zero almost surely. There is no general nonnegativity conclusion for Y, nor general convergence in L1 to zero: the negative of the fair-coin doubling martingale is a counterexample to both stronger assertions.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2006 / iii / Paper 32 / 1 / b / Solution

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