Total variation distance and hypothesis testing ($\text{optimal success probability}=\frac{1}{2}(1+d_{\mathrm{TV}}(P,Q))$)

Suppose one observation comes from either $P$ or $Q$, each with prior probability $1/2$. A decision rule that chooses $P$ on an event $E$ and $Q$ otherwise has success probabilityOn a finite set, choosing $E=\{x:P(x)>Q(x)\}$ therefore gives $\frac{1}{2}(1+d_{\mathrm{TV}}(P,Q))$. This is the equal-prior version of minimum sum of errors in a simple hypothesis test; allowing a statistical test to use an auxiliary random variable cannot improve it, because for each outcome the better of the two decisions already maximizes its contribution.

For the four-outcome example, choose $P$ after $A$ and $Q$ after $B$ or $C$, with either decision allowed after $D$. Choosing $Q$ after $D$ yields $\frac{1}{2}(0.4+0.9)=0.65$. The best success probability is 65%, with a 35% error probability. A smaller total variation distance means the two sources are harder to distinguish from one observation. Unequal prior probabilities, unequal costs, or multiple observations change this particular decision problem; the $65\%$ figure is not a universal bound for every experiment.