Exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel 2026-10-07
The ultimate ruin probability satisfies a tail-forced defective renewal equation. Multiplying it by at an adjustment coefficient turns its kernel into the probability density . Normalization is exactly . The density is absolutely continuous even when the original claim law has atoms; thus it has a nonarithmetic distribution.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2012 iii Paper 40 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the classical risk model surplus , with , and write for its ultimate survival probability. The first-claim decomposition for survival probability follows by conditioning on the first arrival time of the Poisson process. That time has exponential distribution of rate . A claim at time leaves capital if , after which the Markov property restarts the same risk model. ConsequentlyPut and change variable :The convolution is continuous since is bounded and is integrable. Differentiating proves the survival integro-differential equation
For the specified claim law, expand its probability density function as . This is an equal-weight mixture distribution of exponential distributions with rates and . In the convolution, set to obtainSince , the requested coefficients are
For the exponential-mixture differential equation for survival probability, define , and . Differentiating the integrals yieldsApply to the last equation, where . The first two equations eliminate , givingThusThe characteristic polynomial factors asThe ordinary differential equation therefore has solution .
The claim expected value is . The relative safety loading is , and the given zero-capital survival probability is . The limit at infinity sets . A third condition comes from the original survival integro-differential equation: its convolution vanishes at zero, so . Thereforewhich gives and . The final survival probability and ultimate ruin probability areBoth exponential coefficients of are positive. Hence increases from to one, and decreases from to zero. The initial slope is essential: the two stated boundary values alone do not determine all three constants of the eliminated differential equation.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 28 3 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability byThe relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solutionExistence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yieldsBy the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equationThe original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, setMultiplying by gives the required proper renewal equationTo verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value isIt is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor isThis proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component givesIts moment-generating function and derivative areThe moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient inThe adjustment equation, divided by , becomesUsing this identity to subtract from givesThus the asymptotic constant in terms of and isThe denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.