The ultimate ruin probability satisfies a tail-forced defective renewal equation. Multiplying it by at an adjustment coefficient turns its kernel into the probability density . Normalization is exactly . The density is absolutely continuous even when the original claim law has atoms; thus it has a nonarithmetic distribution.
Use the classical risk model surplus , with , and write for its ultimate survival probability. The first-claim decomposition for survival probability follows by conditioning on the first arrival time of the Poisson process. That time has exponential distribution of rate . A claim at time leaves capital if , after which the Markov property restarts the same risk model. Consequently
Put and change variable :
The convolution is continuous since is bounded and is integrable. Differentiating proves the survival integro-differential equation
For the specified claim law, expand its probability density function as . This is an equal-weight mixture distribution of exponential distributions with rates and . In the convolution, set to obtain
Since , the requested coefficients are
For the exponential-mixture differential equation for survival probability, define , and . Differentiating the integrals yields
Apply to the last equation, where . The first two equations eliminate , giving
Thus
The characteristic polynomial factors as
The ordinary differential equation therefore has solution .
The claim expected value is . The relative safety loading is , and the given zero-capital survival probability is . The limit at infinity sets . A third condition comes from the original survival integro-differential equation: its convolution vanishes at zero, so . Therefore
which gives and . The final survival probability and ultimate ruin probability are
Both exponential coefficients of are positive. Hence increases from to one, and decreases from to zero. The initial slope is essential: the two stated boundary values alone do not determine all three constants of the eliminated differential equation.
In the classical risk model write , where the Poisson process has rate and is independent of the claim sizes. Define the ruin time and ultimate ultimate ruin probability by
The relative safety loading is , so . The adjustment coefficient is the nonzero positive solution
Existence and uniqueness follow from the secant-slope existence criterion for an adjustment coefficient. Explicitly, has derivative at zero and is strictly convex for positive claims. The assumed divergence of makes it cross zero once at a positive . When , an exponential lower bound from any positive tail event shows that . In particular is inside the finite-transform domain, not at its endpoint.
Put . Replacing in the survival renewal equation for a classical risk model yields
By the tail integral formula for moments, . Therefore this is the defective renewal equation
The original kernel has mass . For the exponential tilt of the ruin renewal kernel, set
Multiplying by gives the required proper renewal equation
To verify that this is a probability renewal kernel, Tonelli theorem gives, for in the finite-transform domain,
The adjustment coefficient equation consequently implies . Its expected value is
It is finite because is interior to the finite-transform domain and is positive because the strict convex crossing has derivative .
We quote the key renewal theorem in the following form: for a nonarithmetic distribution of positive increments with finite positive mean , and a directly Riemann integrable nonnegative function , the locally bounded solution of satisfies . It has renewal representation ; this follows by iterating the equation, since the probability that arbitrarily many positive increments have sum at most a fixed tends to zero.
Here is absolutely continuous, and hence nonarithmetic distribution, even if the original claim law has atoms. The function is continuous. Choose with . The Markov inequality gives , and hence . Continuity on compact intervals and this exponential bound make the upper Riemann sums finite with uniformly vanishing tails, proving direct Riemann integrability.
A further application of Tonelli theorem evaluates the forcing integral:
All hypotheses of the key renewal theorem are now checked, so the interior adjustment coefficient ruin prefactor is
This proves the requested Cramér–Lundberg ruin asymptotic, including its constant.
For the two-component hyperexponential distribution, conditioning on the chosen exponential component gives
Its moment-generating function and derivative are
The moment-generating function diverges at , while the derivative of the adjustment equation at zero is negative. Strict convexity therefore places its unique positive adjustment coefficient in
The adjustment equation, divided by , becomes
Using this identity to subtract from gives
Thus the asymptotic constant in terms of and is
The denominator is positive on the identified domain. If desired, is the smaller root of ; the other algebraic root lies outside the positive finite-transform interval and is not an adjustment coefficient.