Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 ib Paper 1 18C Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
A sufficient statistic for is a function of the observations whose conditional distribution of given does not depend on , whenever that conditioning event is possible. It retains all parameter dependence of the likelihood.
In the discrete case the Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem provides a direct criterion: , where is independent of the parameter. To justify sufficiency, for a value with positive probability, sum this expression over its fiber and divide:The parameter-dependent factor cancels. Conversely, parameter-independent conditional probabilities give the factorization with . Thus the criterion is both necessary and sufficient, with conditional laws only required on fibers of positive probability.
For the shifted exponential sample the likelihood isIt factors through , so the sample minimum is a sufficient statistic. Writing , independence gives for Therefore is exponential with rate . Its mean is and its variance is . The unbiased endpoint estimator for a shifted exponential sample is consequentlyAlthough the parameter is nonnegative, this unbiased estimator can be negative. Truncating it at zero would change its expectation and lose the requested property of an unbiased estimator.