Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 41 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let . Conditioning on givesWhere the moment-generating function is finite around zero, differentiating the cumulant-generating function givesIn particular and . These compound Poisson cumulants use raw claim moments. The first two formulas also follow by conditioning: and , soThis is the law of total variance. They therefore remain valid with finite first two moments even when no positive exponential moment exists.
Under per-claim excess of loss reinsurance, put and let be the positive part of the excess. The insurer and reinsurer totals are sums of these payments over the same Poisson distribution count. Write . Using the tail integral formula for moments on the tail probabilities of and givesFor example, after , and shifting by gives the reinsurer formula. The moment formulas are finite whenever the corresponding claim moments are finite.
For the specified Pareto distribution, with shape three and minimum ,If , every claim exceeds the reinsurance retention. ThereforeIf , the tail integrals instead giveConsequently the requested sum of variances isOn the first branch, ; it decreases until and then increases. On the second branch . For the minimum is unique; if , all variances are zero and every reinsurance retention minimizes them. ThusThe curve starts at , reaches this minimum, passes through with matching slope on both branches, and then increases concavely toward the horizontal asymptote . The variance-minimizing retention for shape-three Pareto claims is shown below.
Sum of insurer and reinsurer aggregate variances for shape-three Pareto claims, minimized at retention three quarters of the minimum claim size
. Details. The two aggregate payouts are dependent. Conditioning on the common count gives covariance , so for every reinsurance retention, as required by . The covariance of two components of a compound Poisson sum accounts for this distinction between a sum of variances and the variance of a sum.
There is a moment domain qualification for this heavy-tailed example. For every , , and moments of order also diverge. Thus its positive moment-generating function is not finite and higher finite cumulants cannot be obtained by differentiating around zero. Its mean and variance calculations above are valid by conditioning or by the first two right derivatives at zero of the Laplace transform of a nonnegative random variable.
