Poisson exponential martingale 2026-10-14
For a unit-rate Poisson process and real , the displayed process is a nonnegative martingale with initial value one. Independent increments give , proving its conditional mean property. The Ville inequality turns this exponential moment into a maximal tail bound.
Poisson maximal concentration bound 2026-10-14
For a unit-rate Poisson process, gives the displayed maximal deviation bound for . Poisson exponential martingales and the Ville inequality control upper and lower deviations; the upper-tail rate also bounds the lower-tail probability. Since and , the rate is strictly positive for every positive deviation level.