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Poisson exponential martingale (Mtθ​=exp(θNt​−t(eθ−1)))

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Poisson process
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a unit-rate Poisson process and real θ, the displayed process is a nonnegative martingale with initial value one. Independent increments give Eeθ(Nt​−Ns​)=exp((t−s)(eθ−1)), proving its conditional mean property. The Ville inequality turns this exponential moment into a maximal tail bound.

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