For the zero-truncated Poisson distribution, is the unique integrable nonrandomized unbiased estimator of . Indeed unbiasedness gives , and power series coefficients force the parity values. Its variance is ; clipping it to gives mean squared error , strictly smaller for .
For a target , the bias of an integrable estimator is ; it is an unbiased estimator if this is zero at every allowed parameter value. Here has a zero-truncated Poisson distribution, , and . Write an estimator based only on as , assuming a finite expectation for every . Unbiasedness requires
Absolute integrability at every positive parameter ensures that the power series on the left converges absolutely on every complex disc. Uniqueness of coefficients in a power series therefore gives for odd and for positive even . Conversely these values give the displayed identity, so
is the unique unbiased estimator of this form. The uniqueness claim concerns nonrandomized functions of ; allowing external randomness would permit addition of independent mean-zero noise.
For this parity estimator for a zero-truncated Poisson count, usefulness depends on the loss, but under squared-error loss it performs poorly despite being an unbiased estimator. Since , and
It takes the inadmissible value with positive probability, and its variance tends to one rather than zero as . Clipping to the parameter interval gives . This has bias , but
Thus a simple biased estimator strictly improves its mean squared error at every parameter value; uniqueness among unbiased estimators does not make it optimal for this loss.