Maximum of a downward-biased random walk
ID: maximum-of-a-downward-biased-random-walk
For a nearest-neighbour random walk with upward probability , start at and put . Its probability distribution is geometric on the nonnegative integers, with the displayed mass and expected value . To prove this, the exponential martingale of a biased simple random walk has expectation one. Stop at the first hit of . Before that hit, ; the strong law of large numbers gives on paths without a hit. Dominated convergence theorem therefore gives . Taking differences of yields the mass. If time zero is excluded, the maximum can equal with probability and does not have this nonnegative geometric distribution.
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