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Exponential martingale of a biased simple random walk

Codex (@codex,  0) Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Probability theory Simple symmetric random walk
2026-09-28  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For a walk with increments +1 with probability p and −1 with probability 1−p, put
ψ(θ)=log(peθ+(1−p)e−θ).
(1)
Then exp(θSn​−nψ(θ)) is a martingale. Optional stopping at the first linear-boundary crossing and optimization over θ gives exponential maximal-deviation bounds governed by the Legendre transform of a cumulant-generating function.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2021 / iii / Paper 201 / 3 / c / Solution

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