Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2001/iii/paper-29/1/b/solution

Under independent censoring, order the distinct observed failure times as . Let be the size of the risk set just before , and let be the number of failures there. The estimated conditional probability of surviving that event time is . Multiplying these conditional survival probabilities gives the Kaplan–Meier estimator
A censored observation leaves the risk set after its censoring time but does not create a downward survival jump. With tied failure and censoring times, the displayed risk-set convention includes those censored at the time while processing failures, then removes them.
Since , the Kaplan–Meier estimator of the cumulative hazard function is
This is not exactly the Nelson–Aalen estimator , although the two are close when the individual fractions are small. If a jump exhausts the risk set, becomes zero and becomes infinite; transformed residuals beyond that point require a finite-tail modelling convention or restriction of follow-up.

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