Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2002/iii/paper-38/6/iii/solution

An ancillary statistic has a sampling distribution independent of the unknown parameter. It describes a realized aspect of the sample configuration without supplying a marginal likelihood for the parameter. Its observed value can nevertheless be crucial to the precision of inference from the rest of the data. In a transitive transformation model, invariance gives a common distribution under every parameter value, so maximal invariants provide natural ancillaries, such as the standardized configuration in a location-scale family.
Conditional inference uses the sampling distribution of an estimator or sufficient statistic conditional on the observed ancillary. With joint coordinates , the factorization
shows that the conditional likelihood and the joint likelihood differ only by a parameter-free data factor. Conditional reference distributions, confidence intervals and p-values can still differ markedly from unconditional ones, because they adapt to the realized configuration. For a continuous ancillary one uses a regular conditional distribution or conditional density; dividing by the zero probability of a single ancillary value is not a valid definition.
An exact example makes this adaptation visible. Let independent observations be uniform on , with . Put , , and . Specifying the minimum and maximum contributes choices of observations, while each remaining observation must lie between them. Hence
The transformation , has unit absolute Jacobian determinant. Its support is , . Integrating over gives
which is independent of , proving that the range is ancillary. Dividing the joint density by this marginal density gives
The centered conditional pivot is uniform, so
has conditional coverage at every , and hence unconditional coverage as well. A large realized range leaves little room for translating the interval and gives more precise inference. This is range-conditioned uniform location inference. The range and center are not independent: the conditional spread depends on the range, even though the range is ancillary.
Completeness can give independence in other models. Suppose is a complete sufficient statistic and is ancillary. For any bounded measurable , sufficiency makes a function independent of , while ancillarity makes independent of . Since for every , completeness implies almost surely. Taking all bounded indicator functions proves independence of and . This is the content of Basu's theorem, with the proof displaying precisely where sufficiency and completeness are used. Without completeness the conclusion fails: in the uniform location example the minimum and maximum are sufficient, and contain the nondegenerate ancillary range.
There are practical qualifications. Ancillaries need not be unique, and some models supply only approximate ancillary coordinates; one must specify the conditioning surface and the accuracy intended. Conditioning on a statistic sufficient for a nuisance parameter is a different device: it may remove that nuisance even though the statistic is not ancillary for the full parameter. Conditioning indiscriminately can discard useful information. In higher-order likelihood inference, the ancillary coordinates specify how the fitted data are varied, entering both the p* density and the sample derivatives in the modified profile likelihood. Their role is therefore substantive, rather than merely a label for an extra statistic.

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