Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-40/4/i/solution

Assume the draws are independent from , that the target-weighted integrand is covered by its support, and that . Define the importance weight . The change-of-density identity is
Therefore importance sampling uses the unbiased estimator
The strong law of large numbers gives consistency. A finite second moment of the weighted integrand additionally gives finite variance and a usual independent-sample central limit theorem. A useful proposal places enough probability where is large and avoids tiny proposal probability density function there; common support alone does not guarantee finite variance.

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