Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2004/iii/paper-40/4/i/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2004 iii Paper 40 4 i Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume the draws are independent from , that the target-weighted integrand is covered by its support, and that . Define the importance weight . The change-of-density identity isTherefore importance sampling uses the unbiased estimatorThe strong law of large numbers gives consistency. A finite second moment of the weighted integrand additionally gives finite variance and a usual independent-sample central limit theorem. A useful proposal places enough probability where is large and avoids tiny proposal probability density function there; common support alone does not guarantee finite variance.
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