Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/iii/paper-32/3/b/solution

On a product extension of the probability space, take a uniform distribution variable on independent of the original sigma-algebra. For ,
These are the same conditional tails as in the maximal identity for a continuous nonnegative local martingale tending to zero. Taking expectations identifies the unconditional probability distributions:
If , define ; the endpoint is a null event if one uses instead. The possible atom at zero has mass , since the conditional probability of a positive maximum is zero exactly on that event. For fixed , the conditional law is the Pareto distribution of shape one and minimum , with density on .

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