Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2013/iii/paper-30/3/d/solution

The Quasi-Poisson regression retains the same conditional mean but permits
This is a mean–variance function specification through quasi-likelihood; it does not assign a full probability distribution to each count. For independent observations, the quasi-score equation is proportional to , so the mean statistical parameter estimates equal those from Poisson regression. The output estimates through the Pearson dispersion estimator, and inflates the standard errors by approximately .
The large residual deviance relative to 728 residual statistical degrees of freedom also signals substantial overdispersion. Daily weather, traffic and other omitted conditions may produce greater count variation than a homogeneous Poisson distribution allows. The Quasi-Poisson regression accounts for that extra marginal variance. It still requires a correct conditional mean and an appropriate independence assumption; a common dispersion parameter alone does not repair serial correlation.

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