 Solution

Synchronous radius and its limits. Kepler's third law for a circumplanetary orbit givesHere $G$ is the gravitational constant. A planet-synchronous orbit repeats after one spin period. A planet-stationary orbit additionally requires a circular orbit, zero orbital inclination to the equator and prograde motion. Then an antenna fixed on the ground points continuously at the same satellite; merely matching the orbital period does not give this property.

Write the planetary radius as $R_p=(3M/(4\pi \rho ){)}^{1/3}$. Requiring the semi-major axis to exceed $R_p$ gives $P^2>3\pi /(G\rho )$. The stellar tidal force restricts the circumplanetary orbit to the Hill sphere, of radius $r_H=a(M/(3M_{\star }){)}^{1/3}$. ThusThese are the surface and Hill-radius constraints in the idealized spherical, small-$M/M_{\star }$ model. Long-term prograde stability generally requires a radius appreciably inside the Hill sphere; for nonzero orbital eccentricity, the surface constraint applies to the periapsis, not just to the semi-major axis.

Collision time and the launch population. A phase-mixed isotropic swarm occupies a shell of radial scale $e{a}_s$. Its number density scales as $N_s/(e{a}_s^3)$, its relative speed as $a_s/P$, and its geometric collision cross-section as $r^2$. Consequently the total collision rate scales as $N_s^2{r}^2/(Pe{a}_s^2)$. To give the numerical normalization used here, adopt an effective shell volume $V=4\pi e{a}_s^3$. At a fixed position the velocity directions are uniformly distributed in the tangent plane, so their mean relative speed is $4v_K/\pi =8a_s/P$. For an unordered pair, the collision cross-section is $4\pi r^2$, givingThus the mean interval between collisions is $A/N_s^2$ in this large-population kinetic model. The effective shell width fixes an order-one coefficient: small orbital eccentricity and random planes alone do not specify a unique radial probability density. Phase mixing, negligible gravitational focusing, $r\ll e{a}_s$, and uncorrelated encounters are implicit in this estimate. Exactly identical orbital periods with perfectly fixed phases do not themselves produce a memoryless collision process.

For nearly planet-stationary orbits with $e\ll I\ll 1$, the swarm volume is smaller by a factor of order $I$, while the relative speed is smaller by the same factor, since vertical motion of scale $I{v}_K$ dominates the eccentric motion. The two changes cancel in the rate $n\sigma v$: there is no parametric factor $I$ in the collision time within the same phase-mixed kinetic approximation. Numerical factors and phase correlations can differ. This is not an argument that bringing all satellites into one nearly circular plane makes their phases random.

With $N_s=Rt$, an Inhomogeneous Poisson process has cumulative hazard functionThe survival function of the first collision is $\exp [-H(t)]$. Setting the expected number of collisions to one givesThis is a characteristic first-event population, with probability $1-e^{-1}$ of an earlier event. It is not a median: the median has an additional factor $(\log 2{)}^{1/3}$.

Which population collides next? Immediately after the first disruption let $S=N_{s0}-2$ and $F=2x^{-3}$. The latter follows from mass conservation for equal-density spherical pieces. Using the same unordered-pair counting and geometric collision cross-sections as above, define $b=(1+x{)}^2/2$; thenHere $S^2,F^2$ stand for the usual large-population approximations to $S(S-1),F(F-1)$. The factor two distinguishing identical and different species is essential. The probability that the next collision is fragment–fragment isIt is the most likely type if $S<4/[x(1+x{)}^2]$ and $S<2/x^2$. It has probability greater than one half ifFor $x\ll 1$, a strongly fragment-dominated next event therefore requires $Sx\ll 4$; the fragment–satellite comparison is more restrictive than the satellite–satellite comparison. If $S=0$, the next event must be fragment–fragment, provided fragments remain.

Population equations and the normalization discrepancy. Every satellite–satellite event produces $2x^{-3}$ fragments and destroys two satellites. Every satellite–fragment event produces a net $x^{-3}-1$ fragments and destroys one satellite; every fragment–fragment event destroys two fragments. Consistent collision counting therefore givesFor $x\ll 1$, $b\simeq 1/2$ and $x^{-3}-1\simeq x^{-3}$. The last two terms in $A{\dot{N}}_f$ are then twice those in the printed equation. This is a genuine factor-of-two inconsistency: equal-size fragment pairs have a collision cross-section smaller by $x^2$, so their event rate must be $x^2{N}_f^2/A$ if the satellite event rate is $N_s^2/A$; destroying both fragments necessarily gives the sink $-2x^2{N}_f^2/A$.

If the printed equation is taken as a prescribed approximate rate model instead, its implicit event rates are $N_s^2/A$, $N_f{N}_s/(4A)$ and $x^2{N}_f^2/(2A)$. Under precisely that mixed normalization, its corresponding satellite equation isThe printed source term also neglects the consumed fragment in a satellite–fragment event, a legitimate relative $O(x^3)$ approximation. That approximation does not repair the pair-counting discrepancy.

The ensuing cascade. This is a two-size fragmentation cascade. First use the printed approximate model, dropping satellite–satellite events as requested. Put $S=N_s$, $F=N_f$, $k=4x^2$ and take $x<1/2$. ThenIntegrating this linear differential equation, with $F_0=2x^{-3}$ and $S_0=N_{s0}-2>0$, givesInitially the collisional cascade grows if $S_0>8x^2$, with approximate early exponential growth time $4A{x}^3/S_0$ when the satellite population is nearly fixed. The fragment population reaches its maximum atAfterwards satellites are depleted and fragment–fragment losses dominate. For $S_0>0$ the continuum solution has $S\to 0$, $F\to 0$, withWhen no satellites remain initially, $F(t)=F_0/[1+x^2{F}_{0}t/A]$ directly. Small integer populations eventually invalidate these deterministic differential equations.

The consistently counted model has, to leading order in $x$, exactly the same curve $F(S)$ and peak, but both retained time derivatives are twice as large. Its growth time is $2A{x}^3/S_0$, and $F(t)\sim A/(2x^{2}t)$. Keeping $(1+x{)}^2$ and the consumed fragment replaces $k$ by $4x^2/(1+x{)}^2$ and $x^{-3}$ in the curve by $x^{-3}-1$. This explicitly separates the physical collision bookkeeping from the printed normalization while giving the evolution under both conventions.