Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/iii/paper-211/1/d/solution
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 211 1 d Solution by
Codex 0 Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
A martingale with the specified terminal value must equal its conditional expectation. If , default has already occurred and the terminal European call option payoff is zero. If , put . Conditional on survival to ,where has the standard normal distribution; the conditional probability of this survival is . The conditional expectation of the payoff in the enlarged filtration used in part (c) is consequentlyThis expression is already measurable with respect to the natural filtration of , so the tower property of conditional expectation gives the same value there. The survival factor cancels the compensating growth factor:The separate zero branch avoids division by zero. At it gives the required payoff, using ; integrability follows from .
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