Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2018/iii/paper-211/4/d/solution

Let and . Given , the next value is one of . The martingale property makes its upward and downward conditional probabilities equal; their sum is the conditional variance of the increment, . Thus
The discrete Dupire equation therefore recovers all positive-probability one-step conditional transitions from the European call option price surface. No Markov property is required: these are conditional probabilities given the current value, not necessarily given the whole past.
Recovery is impossible at a zero-probability state. For example, satisfies every stated assumption, but at a different integer can satisfy while . Its conditional transitions can be specified arbitrarily without altering . Thus the literal all-states claim needs the positive-probability qualification.

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