Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2015/3/b/i/solution

Put and . The Markov property and the state-independent transition probabilities show that, conditional on the whole previous history, is with probability and with probability . Multiplying these conditional probabilities for any finite step sequence proves that the are independent and identically distributed random variables, with
Because , the strong law of large numbers gives
In particular, almost surely. This stronger pathwise consequence will determine both eventual crossings and the asymptotic first-passage times.

New to topics? Read the docs here!