Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2015/3/b/i/solution
Past exam of the probability course of the University of Oxford 2015 3 b i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
Put and . The Markov property and the state-independent transition probabilities show that, conditional on the whole previous history, is with probability and with probability . Multiplying these conditional probabilities for any finite step sequence proves that the are independent and identically distributed random variables, withBecause , the strong law of large numbers givesIn particular, almost surely. This stronger pathwise consequence will determine both eventual crossings and the asymptotic first-passage times.
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