Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/o/o5/d/solution

Put and . The normal law of the estimator gives . The fitted and residual Gaussian projections are orthogonal and hence independent, so this quantity is independent of . Their ratio therefore has Student's t-distribution:
If is its upper quantile, rearranging its central probability event gives
This interval has exact coverage under the given normal linear model, rather than merely large-sample coverage.

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