Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-simulation-and-statistical-programming-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/1/b/i/solution

Integrating the envelope shows . One trial of rejection sampling draws and an independent from the uniform distribution on , and accepts if . Repeat with fresh independent random variables after each rejection. Ratios need only be evaluated where ; the envelope makes the target zero wherever .
For any measurable set , integration of the conditional probability of acceptance gives
Taking the whole domain gives acceptance probability , and dividing gives . Fresh trials therefore supply independent and identically distributed random variables with target probability density function . The corresponding Monte Carlo estimator is
The proposal count up to and including one acceptance has the geometric distribution
For example, the tail-sum formula gives . Thus the expected cost is proposal draws per accepted target draw.

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