Past exam of the simulation and statistical programming course of the University of Oxford / 2023 / 1 / b / i / Solution

Integrating the envelope $p\le Mq$ shows $M\ge 1$. One trial of rejection sampling draws $Y\sim q$ and an independent $U$ from the uniform distribution on $(0,1)$, and accepts $Y$ if $U\le p(Y)/(Mq(Y))$. Repeat with fresh independent random variables after each rejection. Ratios need only be evaluated where $q>0$; the envelope makes the target zero wherever $q=0$.

For any measurable set $B$, integration of the conditional probability of acceptance givesTaking the whole domain gives acceptance probability $1/M$, and dividing gives $\mathbb{P}(Y\in B\mid \mathrm{accept})={\int }_{B}p(y)dy$. Fresh trials therefore supply independent and identically distributed random variables $X_1,\dots ,X_m$ with target probability density function $p$. The corresponding Monte Carlo estimator isThe proposal count $T$ up to and including one acceptance has the geometric distributionFor example, the tail-sum formula gives $\mathbb{E}T={\sum }_{t\ge 0}(1-1/M{)}^t=M$. Thus the expected cost is $M$ proposal draws per accepted target draw.