Positivity of the limiting Pólya urn proportion

ID: positivity-of-the-limiting-polya-urn-proportion

Both colour counts tend to infinity almost surely. For example, , and independent events occur infinitely often by the Borel-Cantelli second lemma, forcing infinitely many blue additions.
The martingale increment formula gives . Conditional orthogonality of later increments and imply
On the squared difference is , so its conditional probability is at most . Dominated convergence proves zero probability of that endpoint. The symmetric argument for red excludes . No explicit beta law is needed for this proof.

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