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The conditional expectation is the average of a random variable that can be predicted using specified information. It is itself a random variable: the average appropriate to one observed group may differ from that appropriate to another group. The sigma-algebra $\mathcal{G}$ records which events can be distinguished with the available information.

For a real integrable random variable $X$ on a probability space $(\Omega ,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})$ and a sub-sigma-algebra $\mathcal{G}$, the conditional expectation $m=\mathbb{E}[X\mid \mathcal{G}]$ is the almost surely unique integrable random variable that is measurable with respect to $\mathcal{G}$ and satisfiesIts average therefore agrees with that of $X$ on every distinguishable event. The integral characterization handles discrete observations, continuous observations, and information that is not given by a single numerical value.^[ref]

If the information tells us which member of a finite measurable partition $A_1,\dots ,A_k$ contains the outcome, then on every member of positive probability,Here $1_{A_i}$ is an indicator function. Zero-probability members do not determine a unique value, which is why uniqueness is only almost surely. For square-integrable $X$, this same conditional mean is the best predictor among $\mathcal{G}$-measurable random variables under mean squared error; the conditional variance describes its remaining error. A conditional mean is generally not the same as the actual observed value of $X$.^[ref]

Wald's equation turns a random sum into a product of two expected values: the average contribution per step and the average number of steps. Its surprising feature is that the number of steps may depend on what has already happened. A procedure can stop on its first successful Bernoulli trial, for example, while the identity still accounts for its total cost. The crucial restriction is that the decision to take the next step cannot use that step's unobserved outcome.

Let $X_1,X_2,\dots$ be real independent and identically distributed random variables with $\mathbb{E}|X_1|<\infty$, let $\mu =\mathbb{E}[X_1]$, and put $S_0=0$ and $S_n={\sum }_{i=1}^n{X}_i$. Suppose $N$ is a nonnegative integer-valued stopping time for the natural filtration ${\mathcal{F}}_n=\sigma (X_1,\dots ,X_n)$, with $\mathbb{E}[N]<\infty$. Then $S_N$ is an integrable random variable andThese hypotheses allow statistical dependence between $N$ and the increments; they do not allow access to future increments. The finite-expected value requirement is stronger than stopping almost surely.^[ref]

For the proof idea, count step $i$ only on $\{N\ge i\}$. This event is determined by the first $i-1$ observations, so its indicator function is independent of $X_i$. The Proof of Wald's equation by stopping indicators combines this observation with the tail-sum formula for expectation. The same calculation with $|X_i|$ gives $\mathbb{E}{\sum }_{i=1}^N|X_i|=\mathbb{E}|X_1|\mathbb{E}[N]<\infty$, which justifies interchanging the expected value and the infinite series. This is why the result survives a data-dependent end point without assuming an independent count.

The identity is useful in randomized algorithms and repeated sampling: one can translate an average amount of work into an average number of attempts, or conversely, without first finding the full probability distribution of the total. The examples below separate a permissible stopping rule from a rule that peeks ahead and from a valid rule whose average waiting time is infinite.