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Absorption distance is a dimensionless path variable chosen so a non-evolving comoving absorber population with fixed proper cross-section has constant $d\mathcal{N}/dX$. It absorbs the geometrical factor in absorber incidence and comoving number density. A distribution per $dNdX$ and one per $dNdz$ therefore differ by $dX/dz$.

Define neutral-hydrogen column density along a ray by $N=\int n_{\mathrm{HI}}d\ell$, in atoms per unit area. The neutral-hydrogen column-density distribution per redshift isso $f_{z}dNdz$ is the expected number of absorbers in those intervals along one sightline. A logarithmic column bin instead has distribution $N\ln (10)f_z$; the bin convention must be specified.

Let $n_c$ be a constant comoving number density and ${\sigma }_p$ a constant physical interception area. The corresponding physical number density is $n_p=n_c(1+z{)}^3$. Proper light-path length satisfies $d\ell =c|dt|=cdz/[(1+z)H(z)]$. The expected intersection count, or first-order probability in infinitesimal $dz$, is thereforeThe Friedmann equation, the constant-equation-of-state density scaling for pressureless matter, and the present cosmological density parameters giveCombining them yields the absorber incidence and comoving number density relationHere the constant cross-section is physical, as required for this result; a fixed comoving cross-section would instead decrease in physical area as $(1+z{)}^{-2}$. It is convenient to define absorption distance by $dX/dz=(H_0/H(z))(1+z{)}^2$ and $f_X=f_z/(dX/dz)$, so a population with these non-evolution assumptions has constant incidence per $X$.

For a fixed column density or rest-equivalent-width threshold, the number of ordinary Lyman-alpha forest features per unit redshift generally increases towards higher redshift. Over much of $z\sim 1$–$4$, a rough description is $d\mathcal{N}/dz\propto (1+z{)}^{\gamma }$ with an index of order $2$–$3$, dependent on selection; the evolution is much slower at low redshift. Near reionization, blending and widespread opacity make a decomposition into individually detected lines increasingly inappropriate.

First separate physical evolution from geometrical path length. For comoving absorber density $n_c$ and proper interception area ${\sigma }_p$, absorber incidence and comoving number density givesEven a non-evolving population is not constant per unit redshift. Using absorption distance removes this particular geometrical effect.

The remaining redshift evolution of the Lyman-alpha forest reflects several competing processes. Cosmic expansion dilutes the gas; at fixed overdensity, photoionization equilibrium gives $n_{\mathrm{HI}}\propto \alpha (T)(1+z{)}^6/\Gamma$, so dilution can move many features below a fixed threshold. The cosmic ionizing background evolves as quasars, stellar sources and ionizing-photon absorption evolve; a decline of its intensity at late times partly offsets dilution. Photoheating changes temperature and radiative recombination, while gravitational instability redistributes gas into denser structures and hot shocked phases and changes its velocity field. Thus evolving line counts are not a direct count of conserved clouds; the density, thermal state, radiation field, geometry and observational selection must all be accounted for. The high-redshift increase and its physical interpretation are documented in the forest observations and models.

In the printed convention $\rho$ is energy density, since the gravitational source is $8\pi G\rho /(3c^2)$. For nonrelativistic pressureless matter, ${\rho }_m={\rho }_{m,0}(1+z{)}^3$. Define the cosmological density parameters byThe Friedmann equation then givesLet $n_c$ be the constant comoving number density of absorbers, and let ${\sigma }_p$ be their fixed proper interception area. Their proper number density is $n_p(z)=n_c(1+z{)}^3$, with $a_0=1$. The redshift-time relation gives a local proper photon-path incrementFor an infinitesimal path, the expected number of interceptions, and to first order the probability of an interception, is $d\mathcal{N}=n_p{\sigma }_{p}d\ell$. Thus absorber incidence and comoving number density implyTwo factors survive: proper density brings three powers of $1+z$, whereas proper path length brings the inverse of one power. A fixed comoving area instead of the assumed fixed proper area would change the result. The formula is an incidence rate, not a probability bounded by one over a finite redshift interval; multiple interceptions can occur.

Let $M_h,R_h$ describe the halo and let $v=v_{\mathrm{vir}}$. The cosmic baryon fraction is $f_b={\Omega }_b/{\Omega }_m=0.20$, so the specified settled fraction gives $M_d=0.10M_h$. The specific angular momentum constraint at the disk edge isTo infer an actual circular speed one must specify the disk's radial mass distribution: enclosed mass does not determine a disc rotation curve. Introduce a finite geometry coefficient $\kappa$ by $v_d^2=\kappa G{M}_d/R_d$. A rounded, centrally concentrated disk permits a monopole estimate $\kappa \simeq 1$ at its outer edge; it is an explicit approximation, not the spherical shell theorem applied exactly to a razor-thin disk. Ignore the force of the unsettled baryons as well as the dark matter within the disk. Using $v^2=G{M}_h/R_h$, the angular-momentum estimate of a self-gravitating galactic disk givesAn exact disk answer cannot be fixed by total disk mass alone; the dependence on $\kappa$ records that missing input.

For the numerical virial radius of a dark-matter halo, adopt mean density ${\Delta }_c=200$ times the critical density at the formation epoch. This conventional definition givesThe supplied expansion law gives $H(3)=286.49\mathrm{km}{\mathrm{s}}^{-1}\mathrm{Mp}{\mathrm{c}}^{-1}$, and hence $R_h=v/(10H)=97.74\mathrm{kpc}$. Taking $\kappa =1$ yieldsThe corresponding virial mass of a dark-matter halo is $M_h\simeq 1.78\times 10^{12}{M}_{\odot }$, and $M_d\simeq 1.78\times 10^{11}{M}_{\odot }$. Other overdensity conventions give $R_d\propto {\Delta }_c^{-1/2}$ at fixed $H,v,\kappa$.

Interpret the wavelength separation as an observed-frame local mean near the redshift in question. Since Lyman-alpha absorption appears at ${\lambda }_{\mathrm{obs}}={\lambda }_{\alpha }(1+z)$, the incidence isAssume one counted absorption system per intercepted disk, no unrelated forest systems or missed absorbers, unity neutral covering fraction, and a locally slowly varying population. Let ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{abs}}$ be the proper interception cross-section and $n_c$ the comoving number density. The proper density is $n_p=n_c(1+z{)}^3$, and the proper line element along the light path is $d{l}_p=cdz/[H(z)(1+z)]$. Thus the absorber incidence and comoving number density relation isFor a thin circular disk, the projected area is $\pi R_d^2|\cos i|$. Isotropically oriented normals have $⟨|\cos i|⟩=1/2$, so the random-orientation absorbing-disk cross-section is ${\sigma }_{\mathrm{abs}}=\pi R_d^2/2$. ConsequentlyIf all disks are taken face-on instead, $n_c\simeq 0.398{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$. Generally the random-orientation result scales as ${\kappa }^2({\Delta }_c/200)$ and is divided by the neutral covering fraction. The finite mean redshift spacing is sizable, so a precision inference would integrate the incidence over the actual redshift interval rather than identify it with one local value.

There is also a halo abundance mass-budget bound on this formal result. The present mean matter density for these parameters is ${\bar{\rho }}_{m,0}={\Omega }_{m}3H_0^2/(8\pi G)\simeq 3.40\times 10^{10}{M}_{\odot }{\mathrm{Mpc}}^{-3}$. Distinct haloes of this mass cannot have $n_c{M}_h>{\bar{\rho }}_{m,0}$, even if every matter particle belonged to them. Yet the inferred random-orientation population hasEven the face-on estimate exceeds this bound by about twenty-one. The numerical incidence result is conditional; the supplied population assumptions are not cosmologically consistent under this standard virial and compact-disk estimate. A larger neutral-gas absorption radius, a different absorber population, or different physical inputs are needed. For example, random orientations would require an absorbing radius at least about $63\mathrm{kpc}$ merely to reach the all-matter upper bound, much larger than the calculated centrifugal radius. This check does not change the algebraic answer, but prevents treating it as a realizable population.