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The probability of no recovery through month $M$ is the product of the conditional survival probabilities, soUnder quadratic loss, the Bayes estimator is the posterior mean. Posterior independence and the mean of a Beta distribution giveConsequently

For independent and identically distributed random variables with continuous distance distribution function $p_x$, the probability integral transform makes the probability content of the order-$k$ nearest ball a uniform order statistic, with the Beta distribution $\mathrm{Beta}(k,n+1-k)$.

A uniform prior on a finite-volume parameter region assigns constant probability density there and zero outside. On $[0,1]$ it is $\mathrm{Beta}(1,1)$, giving a Beta distribution posterior after binomial distribution data. Uniformity depends on the coordinate: a nonlinear reparametrization introduces a Jacobian and generally does not preserve a uniform density.

With $n$ independent uniform types, $m<n$ equal prizes of scale $w(m/n)$ and unit effort costs, a symmetric Bayesian Nash equilibrium has total expected effort $R_m=m(n-m)w(m/n)/(n+1)$. The all-pay effort identity yields $b(v)=w(m/n){\int }_0^{v}t{q}_m^{\prime }(t)dt$. The allocation derivative is a Beta distribution density with parameters $n-m,m$, so integration gives the formula.