Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 32 2 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Partition the statistical parameter as , with of interest. For each fixed , maximize over the nuisance parameter to obtain . The profile likelihood and profile log-likelihood areTheir maximizer is the interest component of the joint maximum-likelihood estimator. At a regular nuisance maximum, and its negative Hessian matrix is the Schur complementThe profile likelihood ratio is unchanged by a one-to-one nuisance reparametrization, and transforms naturally under a one-to-one interest reparametrization. Under the regular conditions of Wilks theorem, has a limiting chi-squared distribution with dimension of degrees of freedom. Profiling is maximization, rather than integration or conditioning; need not be a normalized data density, and nuisance fitting can cause appreciable higher-order distortion.
The modified profile likelihood corrects for nuisance curvature and sample-coordinate distortion. In suitable coordinates , with an ancillary statistic, setholding fixed when differentiating the data coordinates. Up to an interest-independent factor, the Barndorff-Nielsen modified profile likelihood isEquivalently, implicit differentiation of the nuisance score equation gives , andThe semicolon denotes sample-coordinate differentiation, not a second parameter derivative. In orthogonal coordinates, the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood uses the information adjustment alone; it agrees with this modification when , as happens below.
For the Inverse Gaussian distribution, write , and . Terms independent of both parameters can be absorbed into , givingThe nuisance score function isIt is positive below and negative above it. Thus its global maximum isindependent of . Put . ThenThe nuisance observed information at this fit isSince the constrained nuisance estimator is literally the full nuisance estimator as a function of the data, in the specified sample coordinates. Hence the modified profile likelihood for inverse Gaussian shape isFor and a nonconstant positive sample, the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives . The corresponding fits are and . A constant sample has and no finite profile maximum; under continuous independent sampling this event has probability zero when . In particular, the modified coefficient accounts for the fitted mean nuisance parameter.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 38 6 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Partition a regular parameter as , with interest and nuisance . Orthogonal statistical parameters have zero cross-block of expected Fisher information,This may hold at one parameter value or throughout a parametrization. It is expected-information orthogonality, and does not generally force the observed information cross-block to vanish in each sample.
First, the asymptotic covariance of the joint maximum-likelihood estimator is the inverse information. Orthogonality makes this matrix block diagonal, giving first-order asymptotic independence of interest and nuisance fits. The efficient information with unknown nuisance isFor orthogonal parameters it equals . Thus estimating the nuisance creates no first-order information loss relative to knowing it, at the orthogonal point. This is a local asymptotic statement, not a general finite-sample independence theorem.
Second, orthogonality stabilizes constrained nuisance estimates. Differentiating givesWhen the expected cross-information vanishes, regular sampling fluctuations give and . The derivative is therefore locally. Changing the interest parameter by changes its constrained nuisance fit by only , smaller than the ordinary nuisance estimation error. This reduces sensitivity to how the nuisance is fitted and simplifies higher-order likelihood adjustments.
For scalar interest, local orthogonal nuisance reparametrization can often be constructed explicitly. Keep and write the original nuisance as . The transformed interest score is . Its covariance with the new nuisance score vanishes whenWith smooth nonsingular nuisance information, this ordinary differential equation has a local solution for suitable initial nuisance coordinates. For several interest coordinates the corresponding equations need compatibility conditions; global orthogonality is not automatic.
The normal model gives a transparent example. For independent observations with mean and variance , direct score expectations giveThe cross-information is zero because the centered normal third moment is zero. When fitting at fixed ,so the change is indeed quadratic in a local change of the mean.
Orthogonality is also useful for removing nuisance effects beyond first order. Take variance as interest and mean as nuisance. Put . The profile log-likelihood is up to a constant. The constrained mean is for all , so its sample-coordinate Jacobian determinant is one, and . The information adjustment givesThis agrees with the exact likelihood based on : estimating the mean has used one degree of freedom. In this setting the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood has the same form. The exact distribution follows by projecting the centered normal vector onto the -dimensional subspace orthogonal to the constant vector; an orthonormal basis there supplies independent standard normal coordinates whose squares sum to .
The example shows both the benefit and the limits. Orthogonality organizes first-order precision and nuisance stability; it does not eliminate all higher-order nuisance effects. Nor does it identify an ancillary statistic or justify dropping the sample-coordinate factor in every modified profile likelihood. In the exponential regression calculation that factor cancels the information adjustment, so an information-only correction would give a different answer.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 41 6 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For parameter of interest and nuisance parameter , the profile likelihood has log form , where is the constrained nuisance maximum. Profiling optimizes over the nuisance dimension but does not account for its local volume or conditioning geometry. The modified profile likelihood corrects this loss.
Use ancillary sample coordinates , and let be the nuisance block of observed information. Holding fixed, put . The Barndorff-Nielsen modified profile likelihood is, up to data-only factors,This combines a nuisance-information determinant and a data-coordinate Jacobian determinant. Implicit differentiation of gives , so equivalentlyThe semicolon denotes differentiation in the varying sample coordinate, rather than a parameter derivative. This form also explains the positive adjustment in Question 2: in that canonical conditional problem the mixed sample derivative is data-only, leaving the positive half-log curvature. The adjustment sign cannot be copied between unrelated constructions without tracking their Jacobians.
In an appropriate orthogonal nuisance formulation, the Cox-Reid adjusted profile likelihood uses . It is a useful simpler adjustment, but discarding is not universally legitimate. For normal data with interest and nuisance , the constrained and full nuisance fits both equal , so and . Thusrecovering the residual degrees of freedom and fitted variance . These adjustments target nuisance-related bias and higher-order likelihood inference; they are approximations to conditional or marginal constructions, not an assertion that profiling has become an exact full sampling density.