Equal-prior discrimination of qubit states ($p_{\mathrm{succ}}=\frac{1}{2}+\frac{1}{4}|r-s|$)

For equiprobable qubit states with Bloch vectors $r,s$, their density-matrix difference is $(r-s)\cdot \sigma /2$, with eigenvalues $\pm |r-s|/2$. An effect $0\le E\le I$ declaring the first state yields success $1/2+\mathrm{Tr}[E({\rho }_r-{\rho }_s)]/2$. Selecting its positive-eigenvalue eigenspace maximizes this trace and proves the displayed result. Measure along $r-s$ and attach the corresponding state labels; if the vectors coincide, no measurement improves on guessing.