Estimation error 2026-10-31
An estimation error is the difference between an estimator and the statistical parameter it estimates. It is a random variable before observing the sample. Its mean is the bias of the estimator, and its mean square is the sum of the variance and squared bias. Standardizing an estimation error by its standard error often yields an approximate standard normal distribution, allowing construction of a Wald confidence interval.
Let , where is the standard normal distribution's cumulative distribution function. Statistical consistency and Slutsky's theorem allow replacement of by :
Thus the probability that this standardized estimation error lies between and tends to . Rearranging gives the Wald confidence interval
The coverage probability is approximate, with limiting value ; it is a repeated-sampling statement about the random confidence interval.