Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 57 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Assume well-mixed populations, exponential prey growth without density regulation, predator mortality without food, and bilinear encounters. The Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model isIts coexistence equilibrium is , . The Jacobian matrix there has eigenvalues , so it is a center equilibrium rather than an attracting equilibrium. More globally,is a first integral: substituting the two equations into gives zero. It has a strict minimum at coexistence, diverges at the boundary and at infinity, and its other positive-quadrant level sets are closed periodic orbits. Small oscillations have frequency . In scaled variables and , the linearization is , .
Model an annual fixed quota as a pulse removing prey, , , with . Between pulses the original equations apply. In logarithmic coordinates the flow has zero divergence, but the pulse has determinant . Therefore a periodic annually harvested trajectory has return map determinant greater than one, and cannot have both multipliers inside the unit circle. It is unstable, even when a leading rotation-plus-translation approximation looks neutral. Near a nonresonant small-quota forced orbit this expansion destabilizes the original center equilibrium; resonant pulse timing can add secular effects. Quotas larger than the remaining prey are not biologically realizable and require stopping the model. This is fixed-quota harvesting of Lotka-Volterra populations.
The common continuous approximation to an annual quota gives . Its positive equilibrium is , , requiring . Its Jacobian matrix has trace and determinant , so this approximation also destabilizes coexistence. At small it is an unstable focus. A quota is a larger per-capita mortality when prey are scarce, which is the adverse feedback responsible for the result.
For abundance-triggered pulses, retain the same fixed prey removal and specify the crossing direction. The exact event-triggered harvesting by conserved energy calculation isIf prey abundance triggers the event at , this increment is the same at every event. A sufficiently high prey threshold with a modest quota gives : the orbit's oscillation energy decreases until it no longer crosses the threshold, after which harvesting stops. If , then and harvesting increases oscillations. At the balanced threshold satisfying , energy is unchanged and the ideal orbit is neutral. Thus the useful rule is harvesting at high prey abundance, not simply using any fixed threshold; the equality case supplies no asymptotic restoration.
A predator threshold does not hold prey abundance fixed. On a rising-predator crossing, , so a sufficiently small harvest initially lowers ; on a falling-predator crossing , it raises . Nevertheless the rising-predator rule is not a robust stabilizer in this conservative model. Its balanced return orbit has preharvest prey abundanceobtained by equating before and after the pulse. On the return section the derivative isIts magnitude exceeds one because for . The balanced predator-triggered cycle is consequently unstable. At leading small-oscillation order its multiplier is , explaining a marginal alternation rather than stable damping. If the trigger is crossed in both directions, or a variable rather than fixed quota is used, a different return rule results and must be analyzed separately.
For conservation, the ideal model shows why fixed removals can be dangerous and why prey-based high-abundance feedback can be safer than a calendar quota or an unspecified predator threshold. These conclusions depend on the chosen pulse rule and on the absence of density dependence, refuges and stochasticity. They do not justify a universal numerical safe quota. A harvest policy needs a stopping threshold and the correct phase-dependent feedback, not merely a small nominal annual catch.