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Exponential posterior for a uniform endpoint (θ∣X=x ∼ x+Exp(1))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics Area of mathematics Probability and statistics Statistical inference Bayesian statistics Bayesian posterior
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For one observation from a continuous uniform distribution on [0,θ] and prior density θe−θ, the likelihood cancels the factor θ and leaves e−θ1{θ≥x}​. Normalization gives posterior density e−(θ−x)1{θ≥x}​, for x≥0. Its mean is x+1 and variance one. The Bayes estimator under squared error loss is therefore x+1, unchanged by multiplying the loss by a positive constant.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / ib / Paper 2 / 3D / Solution

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