Poisson log-rate ratio 2026-10-14
For independent samples of observations from Poisson distributions with positive means and , the maximum-likelihood estimator of is the displayed difference when both totals are positive. Its asymptotic variance is , obtained by the delta method or by inverting the two-parameter Fisher information matrix. A zero group total makes its log-mean estimate a boundary value; finite normal intervals require nonzero totals.
In Poisson regression with log means , the Fisher information matrix is , where . Inverting this matrix gives slope variance . Writing reduces it to the displayed reciprocal weighted sum of squares. Thus a common intercept consumes information about the overall rate, while slope information comes from the spread of the covariates under the mean-count weights. Constant covariates make the two parameters unidentifiable.
In a regular common-support statistical model with probability density function , the score function in is . Its zero expectation gives for . The mixed log-likelihood derivative is , so the cross Fisher information matrix block vanishes. At zero the same conclusion follows by continuity when the regular derivatives extend there. This proves parameter orthogonality; it does not establish exact independence of fitted parameters.