Fixed point count of a uniform random permutation ($P(M_n=m)=\frac{1}{m!}{\sum }_{j=0}^{n-m}\frac{(-1{)}^j}{j!}$)

For a uniform random permutation $\pi$ of $n\ge 1$ objects, let $M_n$ count its fixed points. Write $M_n={\sum }_{i=1}^n{1}_{\{\pi (i)=i\}}$. Each indicator random variable has expected value $1/n$, so linearity of expectation gives $\mathbb{E}[M_n]=1$ for every $n\ge 1$. This average does not require independence: for $n\ge 2$, fixing two specified objects has probability $1/[n(n-1)]$, greater than the product $1/n^2$ of their individual probabilities.

For four objects, exact enumeration gives counts $9,8,6,0,1$ for $0,1,2,3,4$ fixed points among the $24$ equally likely permutations. Their weighted arithmetic mean is $(0\cdot 9+1\cdot 8+2\cdot 6+4\cdot 1)/24=1$. Exactly three fixed points are impossible: the last object must then also be fixed.

Choose the $m$ fixed objects and derange the remaining $n-m$. Their count is $\left(\genfrac{}{}{0ex}{}{n}{m}\right)D_{n-m}$ among $n!$ equally likely permutations. The inclusion-exclusion principle for $D_{n-m}$ proves the displayed law, valid for $0\le m\le n$ and zero otherwise. With $D_0=1$, it includes the all-fixed case and the impossibility of exactly $n-1$ fixed objects. For fixed $m$, the law tends to $e^{-1}/m!$, the Poisson distribution of mean one.