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Fluid limit of the SIRS Markov chain (s˙=−λsi+νr,i˙=λsi−γi,r˙=γi−νr)

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Physics Branches of physics Mathematical biology Compartmental models (epidemiology) SIR model with waning immunity SIRS Markov chain
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For convergent initial proportions, the scaled SIRS Markov chain converges uniformly in probability on each fixed finite interval to the solution of these equations. The Poisson time-change representation of a Markov chain writes it as its integrated drift plus centered Poisson errors. Bounded rates, Poisson concentration and the Gronwall inequality control the error. This finite-time limit does not by itself justify an approximation over time intervals growing with the population size.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2007 / iii / Paper 37 / 1 / b / Solution

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