Bernstein-von Mises theorem Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-11-05
A Bernstein-von Mises theorem identifies a centered, scaled posterior distribution with the Gaussian law suggested by an efficient likelihood approximation. In an infinite-dimensional model, this conclusion requires control of prior-induced bias; a positive marginal prior density alone does not state enough assumptions.
A concrete calculation shows the issue. In the Gaussian sequence model, let , with , and assign independent priors with every and . Put . For a nonzero coefficient vector , the linear functional has the exact posterior lawThe efficient observation statistic exists as a Gaussian noise pairing even though itself is not in . dominated convergence gives . To center at , however, one also needsThe remaining noise part of the scaled centering error has variance . Under this displayed bias condition, the conditional law of converges in total variation distance, in sampling probability, to . Without bias control, convergence of posterior variances is insufficient. The calculation is specific to conjugate product Gaussian priors; general nonparametric results impose their own prior, truth and functional regularity hypotheses.[ref]
Nonparametric Bernstein-von Mises theorems in Gaussian white noise by Ismaël Castillo and Richard Nickl. 2013, Section 2.3.1, linear-function inference; the conjugate-coordinate calculation is derived here
Gaussian net test Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-11-05
A Gaussian net test turns a finite covering of an alternative into a test with an explicit covering-number cost. In the Gaussian sequence model , compare a null with centers in L2 space satisfying . Put and reject if anyEach pairing is well-defined as an isonormal Gaussian process pairing even though the noise sequence itself is not in L2 space. Under the null, it is centered normal with variance before subtracting the threshold. The Gaussian tail bound and union bound giveIf for some center, the mean of that center's displayed statistic is at least , by the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality. ThusA radius- net with centers in the separated alternative supplies such a test for its entire covered set. To make the first error small, the squared separation must dominate . This is why metric complexity, rather than just individual Gaussian tails, enters composite testing.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2019 iii Paper 210 2 Solution 2026-10-03
Letso . In the Gaussian sequence model, put . For each relevant coordinate, the posterior density of relative to the standard-normal density isThe log-Lipschitz assumption impliesThese bounds provide Gaussian-integrable domination, while the ratio converges pointwise to one. Dominated convergence, coordinate independence, and the same argument after multiplying by show that, under the posterior,almost surely. The supplied moment-generating-function criterion therefore gives the finite-functional Bernstein-von Mises theoremwith uniform convergence of distribution functions.
If , the posterior quantile defining consequently satisfiesin probability. Under ,for every . Quantile convergence and the Slutsky theorem now yield