EM likelihood monotonicity Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-10-14
For , the Jensen inequality givesThus any expectation-maximization algorithm M-step that increases cannot decrease the observed-data likelihood function.[ref]
For a short proof, assume common support and finite expressions, and keep the E-step conditional distribution fixed. The concavity of the logarithm and Jensen's inequality giveThis evidence lower bound equals . At , the ratio inside the expectation is the constant , so equality holds. During the M-step, the second term is constant; increasing raises a lower bound that touches the current log-likelihood. HenceIncreasing likelihood values alone do not establish convergence of the statistical parameters or attainment of a global maximum. In a differentiable finite mixture model, the gradient of equals the candidate-parameter gradient of evaluated at the current fit. Thus an interior fixed point of an exact M-step is a stationary point, which need not be a local maximum; the Identical-mean EM trap is an explicit counterexample. Small changes in log-likelihood can also occur before the means have settled, so inspecting both is useful.