Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 iii Paper 42 5 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
An exponential dispersion family of order one has density or mass function, relative to a fixed dominating measure, of the formwhere is a scalar natural parameter, is the dispersion parameter, and the support does not depend on . For regular families, is twice differentiable on an open natural-parameter domain and . Known observation weights replace by . “Order one” refers to the scalar canonical statistic , rather than an arbitrary vector of canonical statistics.
Differentiate the normalization , or its discrete counterpart, assuming differentiation under the integral is valid. The first derivative gives . The second derivative givesConsequently,The variance function expresses the second derivative in terms of the mean:
A generalized linear model specifies independent responses from an exponential dispersion family, a linear predictor , and a differentiable monotone link function relating it to the response mean by . The family, variance function, covariate design, link function and dispersion specification together define the model. The canonical link function identifies the linear predictor with the natural parameter:One advantage is that the likelihood equations become particularly simple. With known weights and common dispersion , the score function and negative Hessian matrix for areThe latter does not explicitly depend on the responses, so it equals the expected Fisher information matrix at the same parameter. With full-rank design and positive variances the likelihood is strictly concave in , simplifying optimization. These statements concern the coefficient block at a fixed dispersion value.
For a normal distribution with mean and variance ,Thus , , , and . Its canonical link function is , the identity link.
For a Poisson distribution with mean and support ,Here , , , and . Therefore , , and the Poisson canonical link is .
For a Bernoulli distribution with success probability ,Taking , , , and gives the required form. Its mean and variance function are and . Its canonical link function is , the logit link. The fixed dispersion values in the Poisson and Bernoulli cases are part of those models; an arbitrary continuous dispersion is not being asserted for them.
To test , first fit the unrestricted model and then the restricted model with that component fixed at zero, estimating all nuisance parameters, including dispersion when applicable, in each fit. If and denote their full fitted parameter vectors, the likelihood-ratio test usesFor identifiable regular models, an interior null parameter and a fixed-dimensional full-rank design with increasing information, the Wilks theorem gives under . A level- test rejects for greater than the -quantile of the chi-squared distribution with one degree of freedom.
Alternatively the Wald test uses , with the variance obtained from the appropriate inverse full Fisher information matrix; it has the same limiting null law. The score test fits only the restricted model. If collects its nuisance parameters, its efficient information is , and the statistic is , again asymptotically . Accounting for the nuisance block is necessary rather than using the unadjusted diagonal information.