Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2007 iii Paper 48 4 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Set , and . The fourth-moment assumption makes finite, so the variance of a sample mean is . Assume , as required for leave-one-out estimation.
The Jackknife variance estimator recomputes the original statistic on each sample with one observation removed. HereBy the definition of the Jackknife variance estimator,For completeness, expanding the centered sum givesConsequently . The jackknife variance estimator is unbiased for this statistic. This calculation uses only the finite fourth moment, not normality of the original observations.
Given the observed data, put and . The empirical distribution assigns mass to each observed , including repeated values with their multiplicities. A bootstrap sample consists of independent draws from this distribution, with replacement. The nonparametric bootstrap variance estimate is the conditional varianceIndependence of the bootstrap draws gives the exact conditional bootstrap variance of a sample mean:Thus its finite-sample expectation is , in contrast to the unbiased jackknife estimate. This is the jackknife and bootstrap variance of a sample second moment scaling difference.
To approximate it by Monte Carlo simulation, independently generate bootstrap samples. For replicate , choose independent uniform indices and compute . With , useFor this is conditionally unbiased for the bootstrap variance and converges to it as . Uniform indices can be obtained by for uniforms on .
Let be the conditional bootstrap distribution of the statistic. A nominal level percentile bootstrap confidence interval isReuse the bootstrap replicates, sort them as , and take the order statistics with ranks and as empirical quantiles. These are quantiles of the statistic itself, rather than reflected quantiles of its centered error. Increasing reduces simulation error; it does not turn an approximate confidence interval into an exact finite-sample one.
An analytic alternative follows from the central limit theorem. If , then , and the sample variance converges to by the strong law of large numbers. The Slutsky theorem therefore gives the large-sample normal approximation intervalwhere is the standard normal quantile. Its lower endpoint may be truncated to zero because the parameter is nonnegative. If , almost surely and the statistic identifies the parameter exactly; the interval degenerates to that value. The nondegenerate normal interval is asymptotic, not an exact Student interval under arbitrary .