Let , with all , and put . The independent exponential epoch times have joint density
Take a proper prior distribution density on , independent of the neutral genealogy. Independence is appropriate because the specified neutral Kingman's coalescent does not depend on the mutation parameter. The conditional observed-count likelihood function is
Its prior predictive probability, or Bayesian model evidence, is
Assuming , Bayes' theorem gives the joint posterior of mutation rate and coalescent times:
It is zero outside the prior support and positive-time region. For , use the usual convention in the Poisson mass. An improper prior cannot be sampled as the proposal in the following algorithm, even in cases where its formal posterior can be normalized.