Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 38 4 ii Solution 2026-10-14
Here the negative binomial distribution has mean parameter and size parameter . Its support in the original PDF is all nonnegative integers; a finite endpoint appearing in the TeX aid would be incorrect. The probability generating function, obtained from the generalized binomial series, isDifferentiating at one gives and . Since the variance is , this provesThe extra positive term explains its overdispersion relative to a Poisson distribution.
For one observation, write the log-likelihood asThe mean score function and its cross derivative areTaking expectations gives . In addition,For reference, with the digamma function, the size score function isIts variance is finite and positive for finite positive . Thus negative binomial mean-size parameter orthogonality makes the expected Fisher information matrix diagonal. For an independent identically distributed sample and a regular identifiable interior true parameter, asymptotic normality of a maximum likelihood estimator givesHence the asymptotic correlation is zero. This is first-order asymptotic independence, not a claim of exact finite-sample independence. Indeed the mean score yields at an interior fit, while the size fit also depends on the observed dispersion. The argument excludes a true boundary such as the Poisson limit .