Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2023 ib Paper 1 18H b Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-09-25
Expanding the exponent givesThe Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem therefore shows that is sufficient.
It is also minimal sufficient. For two sample points ,where is independent of . This ratio is independent of exactly when . The likelihood-ratio criterion for minimal sufficiency applies, proving the claim and the general normal sample sum with known variance result in this case.
Sample mean sufficiency depends on the model 2026-10-14
For the normal sample sum with known variance, assume independent and identically distributed with fixed known variance . The joint probability density factors asThe Fisher-Neyman factorization theorem proves that the sum, and hence the sample mean, is a sufficient statistic for . Its remaining deviations have a joint Gaussian law independent of and are independent of . If both and are unknown, the sample mean alone loses information about variance; the pair is sufficient for the full statistical parameter.
A discrete counterexample shows why a sample mean is not automatically sufficient for arbitrary statistical models. Let be independent and identically distributed on withEach observation has mean one. The arrangements all give sample mean one, yetThis conditional probability is at and at . The conditional distribution therefore still depends on the unknown statistical parameter: this sample mean is not a sufficient statistic. The useful reduction depends on the family of full-data laws, even when its mean stays fixed.