Past exam of the biological physics course of the University of Oxford / 2015 / 8 / i / Solution

A time-calibrated phylogenetic tree combines evidence about ancestry with evidence about elapsed time. First identify homologous RNA or protein sequences, preferably orthologous loci whose splits reflect the species divergences of interest. A multiple sequence alignment proposes corresponding ancestral positions. Conserved ribosomal RNA can compare distant lineages, whereas faster-evolving regions help resolve recent splits; amino acid alignments can retain useful deep information after many nucleotide sites have changed repeatedly.

A phylogenetics model estimates a topology and branch lengths in substitutions per site, using explicit substitution probabilities rather than treating every observed mismatch as one historical change. Repeated substitutions, unequal rates among sites, selection, and compositional bias can make observed mismatch fractions underestimate the amount of change. Multiple loci help test consistency; a single gene tree can disagree with the species history through duplication, incomplete lineage sorting, or horizontal transfer.

A molecular clock converts branch change to time through an evolutionary rate. For two equally evolving lineages, an expected distance $d$ and rate $\mu$ give a divergence time $t=d/(2\mu )$, but sequence information alone usually identifies a rate-time product, not its two factors separately. A fossil securely assigned to a descendant clade supplies a dated constraint: the ancestral split must be at least as old as that fossil. The oldest known fossil is normally a minimum age, not proof that the lineage originated exactly then.

Several independent fossil constraints, their dating and placement uncertainty, and a relaxed molecular clock permit rates to vary while estimating divergence times with uncertainty intervals. Geological absence alone is a weak upper bound when preservation or sampling is poor. Conflicting loci, uncertain alignments, saturation, model misspecification, and uncertain fossil assignments should be investigated rather than hidden by a precise-looking time axis. The resulting phylogenetic tree is a joint inference from sequences, evolutionary assumptions, and geological evidence.