Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2003 / iii / Paper 79 / 1

At large-deviation speed $L$, the exponential distribution gives the large deviation principle on $\mathbb{R}$ with good rate functionIn particular, $\mathbb{P}(B/L\ge b)=e^{-\lambda Lb}$ for $b\ge 0$. Its finite sublevel sets are the compact sets $[0,r/\lambda ]$.

Write $S_L={\sum }_{i=1}^L{A}_i$ and $Z_L=S_L/L$. The cumulant-generating function of one normal random variable isCramér's theorem states that empirical means of independent and identically distributed random variables whose moment-generating function is finite on a neighborhood of zero satisfy a large deviation principle at the sample-size large-deviation speed, with good rate function equal to the Legendre-Fenchel transform of their cumulant-generating function. Here that givesFor ${\sigma }^2>0$, differentiation gives the maximizing parameter $\theta =(x-\mu )/{\sigma }^2$, and henceThis rate function tends to infinity as $|x|\to \infty$, so its finite sublevel sets are compact. Equivalently, the Gärtner–Ellis theorem applies because the limiting scaled cumulant-generating function is finite and differentiable everywhere; it is lower semicontinuous and essentially smooth, with no finite domain boundary at which to check steepness. If ${\sigma }^2=0$ is permitted, $Z_L=\mu$ deterministically and the rate function is zero at $\mu$ and infinity elsewhere.

The product large-deviation principle states that independent families satisfying large deviation principles at the same speed with good rate functions $J$ and $I$ have joint good rate function $J(b)+I(z)$. The contraction principle for large deviations states that a continuous map $f$ sends such a principle to one with good rate function ${\inf }_{f(u)=x}I(u)$. Apply these results to $(B/L,S_L/L)$ and addition. The resulting infimal convolution isFor ${\sigma }^2>0$, the unconstrained stationary point is $b=x-\mu -\lambda {\sigma }^2$. Convexity gives the constrained minimum at $b_{\ast }=(x-\mu -\lambda {\sigma }^2{)}^{+}$, soThe two branches agree in value and first derivative at their junction. Both tails tend to infinity, giving a good rate function. This is the fixed exponential perturbation of a Gaussian empirical mean.

There is a reason to use the product large-deviation principle rather than invoke the supplied Gärtner–Ellis theorem without checking its hypotheses. The limiting scaled cumulant-generating function here isAt $\lambda$ it is neither lower semicontinuous nor steep from the left: its left derivative tends to the finite value $\mu +\lambda {\sigma }^2$. Its Legendre-Fenchel transform still equals $K$, but the stated Gärtner–Ellis theorem does not establish the full lower bound on the linear branch. The product large-deviation principle and contraction principle for large deviations do establish it. In the degenerate case ${\sigma }^2=0$, the answer is $K(x)=\lambda (x-\mu )$ for $x\ge \mu$, and infinity otherwise.

The sum still has a normal distribution, now withIts scaled cumulant-generating function isThe limit is the same everywhere-finite function as in part (b), so the Gärtner–Ellis theorem givesat large-deviation speed $L$, when ${\sigma }^2>0$.

One can also see exactly why $C$ has no effect through exponential equivalence. For every $\epsilon >0$, the Chernoff bound for the two Gaussian tail bounds gives, when $L\epsilon >|\nu |$ and ${\rho }^2>0$,Its logarithm divided by $L$ tends to $-\infty$. If ${\rho }^2=0$, this probability is eventually zero. The transfer result for exponential equivalence says that coupled families whose distance exceeds each fixed positive tolerance with superexponentially small probability share a large deviation principle with the same good rate function. Apply it to $(C+S_L)/L$ and $S_L/L$. This also covers ${\sigma }^2=0$, with the point-mass rate function from part (b).

All three normalized sums converge in probability to $\mu$: the weak law of large numbers controls $S_L/L$, and the two fixed random variables vanish after division by $L$. Their rare fluctuations nevertheless differ. A fixed normal random variable would have to fluctuate by order $L$ to alter the mean by a fixed amount, and that costs $\exp (-\text{constant}{L}^2)$. A fixed exponential random variable can do the same for a cost of order $\exp (-\text{constant}L)$, exactly the large-deviation speed of the empirical mean.

Below $\mu +\lambda {\sigma }^2$, the optimal exponential contribution is zero, and the Gaussian empirical mean supplies the fluctuation. Above it, the optimal empirical mean remains at $\mu +\lambda {\sigma }^2$, while $B/L$ supplies $x-\mu -\lambda {\sigma }^2$. This explains the quadratic-to-linear change in the rate function and why only the upper tail is altered. Convergence to the same typical value does not imply the same large-deviation behavior.