Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2004 / iii / Paper 30 / 5

Denote the density process by $L_t=\exp (M_t-[M{]}_t/2)$. The given identities for all $A\in {\mathcal{F}}_s$ implyThus $L$ is a strictly positive true martingale, not merely a local martingale. The Itô formula gives $dL=LdM$, and henceFirst work with the zero-starting corrected increments $U=X-X_0-[X,M]$. Integration by parts givesThe finite-variation bracket has zero quadratic covariation with $L$, so no other term appears. Thus $LU$ is a P-local martingale.

To justify the change of measure, stop $U$ at ${\tau }_n=\inf \{t:|U_t|\ge n\}$, with optional further localization if needed. The product $L_t{U}_{t\wedge {\tau }_n}$ remains a P-local martingale: before the stopping time the cancellation above applies, and afterwards only its bounded constant factor multiplies $dL$. Its absolute value is bounded by $n{L}_t$. On a finite horizon the stopped values of $L$ are uniformly integrable, so Q1(c) upgrades this product to a true martingale. The Bayes formula for conditional expectation now givesFinite-horizon equivalence of the measures transfers the localizing sequence to Q. Therefore $U$ is a continuous Q-local martingale. If $X_0\in L^1(\mathbb{Q})$, adding its constant-in-time process provesThis proves the Girsanov theorem assertion under the usual zero or deterministic initial-value convention. More generally the normalization $M_0=0$ makes $L_0=1$, so P and Q agree on ${\mathcal{F}}_0$ and the required initial integrability is automatic.

There is a literal initial-integrability qualification if neither convention is imposed. On positive integers let $P(n)=2^{-n}$, $Q(n)=c/n^2$, with $c=({\sum }_{n\ge 1}{n}^{-2}{)}^{-1}$, and let every filtration equal the full sigma-algebra. Constant processes $M_t=\log (c{2}^n/n^2)$ and $X_t=n$ are P-martingales, and $e^{M_t}$ is precisely the prescribed density. But ${\mathbb{E}}_Q|X_0|=\infty$ and $[X,M]=0$, so the asserted Q-local martingale cannot have an integrable initial value. This is why initial integrability under a density change is part of the precise formulation.

If $X$ is a P-Brownian motion, its starting value is deterministic, so Q5(a) applies. The correction $[X,M]$ has finite variation and does not alter quadratic variation; Q1(b) gives $[\tilde{X}{]}_t=t$ under Q. The Lévy characterization of Brownian motion therefore identifies $\tilde{X}$ as a Q-Brownian motion with the same starting value.

For the likelihood, use Wiener measure ${\mathbb{Q}}^x$ as the reference measure and write its coordinate as ${\omega }_t=x+W_t$. Setand let $L=\mathcal{E}(M)$ be its stochastic exponential. We must prove it is a true martingale; unverified large-horizon Novikov estimates would not suffice.

Fix $T$ and stop at ${\tau }_n=\inf \{s:|{\omega }_s|\ge n\}$, with $n>|x|$. The bounded integrand satisfies the Novikov condition, so $L_{T\wedge {\tau }_n}$ defines a probability $P_n$ on ${\mathcal{F}}_T$. By the result just established,is Brownian under $P_n$ on this horizon. Therefore $d{\omega }_s=d{W}_s^{(n)}-\mu 1_{\{s\le {\tau }_n\}}{\omega }_{s}ds$. The Gronwall inequality givesThe Doob L2 maximal inequality then bounds its squared expectation by $C_T=2e^{2|\mu |T}(x^2+4T)$, uniformly in $n$. In particular $P_n({\tau }_n\le T)\le C_T/n^2$. On $\{{\tau }_n>T\}$ the stopped and unstopped densities agree, soContinuous Brownian paths are bounded on $[0,T]$, and the indicators increase to one. The monotone convergence theorem proves $\mathbb{E}{L}_T=1$. Since a nonnegative local martingale is a supermartingale, constant expectation at every time makes $L$ a true martingale.

Under its tilted measure, ${\hat{W}}_t=W_t+\mu {\int }_0^t{\omega }_{s}ds$ is Brownian and $d{\omega }_t=d{\hat{W}}_t-\mu {\omega }_{t}dt$. The explicit linear solution gives uniqueness of this law, identifying it with ${\mathbb{P}}^x$. Consequently the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck likelihood relative to Wiener measure isThis is a finite-horizon density statement; it does not assert absolute continuity of the full infinite-horizon path laws.