Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2006 / ii / Paper 3 / 6B (Mathematical Biology)

The infection term $rIS$ is a mass-action contact rate: each infection removes one susceptible individual and adds one infected individual. Recovery at rate $aI$ transfers individuals from the infected class to the recovered class. Loss of immunity at rate $pR$ transfers recovered individuals back to the susceptible class. Thus these equations describe the SIR model with waning immunity, also called the SIRS model. Adding the equations gives $\dot{S}+\dot{I}+\dot{R}=0$, so $S+I+R=N$. The nonnegative population region is invariant because the derivative of any population on its zero boundary is nonnegative.

Since $S\le N$, the infected population satisfies $\dot{I}=(rS-a)I\le (rN-a)I$. Integration gives $I(t)\le I(0)e^{(rN-a)t}$. Hence $rN<a$ forces the infected population to decrease exponentially from the outset: there is no epidemic outbreak.

For $rN>a$ and $p>0$, a nonzero infected equilibrium requires $S_{\ast }=a/r$. Using $a{I}_{\ast }=p{R}_{\ast }$ and population conservation givesEliminate $R=N-S-I$ before assessing stability, since perturbations must preserve the total population. The resulting Jacobian matrix at this endemic equilibrium isIts trace is negative and its determinant positive, so both eigenvalues have negative real part: the endemic equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable on the fixed-population plane. The full three-variable system has a neutral direction corresponding to changing the conserved population.

Writing $\kappa =rN-a>0$, as $p\to 0$ the trace is $-prN/a+O(p^2)$ and the determinant is $p\kappa$. Hence the discriminant $(\mathrm{tr}J{)}^2-4\det J=-4p\kappa +O(p^2)<0$. As $p\to \infty$, the trace is $-p-\kappa +O(p^{-1})$ and the determinant is again $p\kappa$, giving a positive discriminant $p^2+O(p)$. Both quantities are $O(p)$ in both limits, but the eigenvalues are complex for sufficiently small $p$ and real for sufficiently large $p$.