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Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2010 / iii / Paper 36 / 1 / h

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Mathematics course of the University of Cambridge Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2010 iii Paper 36 1
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No. A Bayes factor favouring the alternative means B01​<1, but the posterior odds are B01​O01​. They are less than one only if B01​<1/O01​. For example, prior odds of 1000:1 on the null hypothesis, combined with a Bayes factor of 100:1 in favour of the alternative, still give posterior odds of 10:1 on the null hypothesis. An unusual claim can require substantial evidence to overcome low initial plausibility.

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